Rigor
Our commitment to intellectual honesty. Methodology transparency, falsifiability tests, and outcome calibration.
Principles
How we think about rigor
Open Protocol
Our full methodology is published. Every step from inputs to valuation is documented and auditable.
Explicit Uncertainty
We never hide uncertainty. Confidence grades and ranges are core to every output.
Outcome Tracking
We track predicted vs. actual outcomes and publish the results in our Backtest Note.
Independent Review
Every memo undergoes adversarial review by analysts not involved in the initial analysis.
Falsifiability
Tests that could prove us wrong
Hype Injection Test
Would the valuation change if we removed all narrative assumptions and relied only on financial data?
Backtest Validation
Does our methodology predict past outcomes when applied to historical data?
Adversarial Review
Can an independent analyst find material flaws in our analysis?
Framework
Three-lens valuation approach
Every valuation uses three independent analytical lenses, triangulating toward a defensible range.
Transaction Comparables
M&A and secondary transactions with similar business models, scale, and market conditions.
- Source-graded data
- Recency-weighted
- Size-adjusted
Trading Multiples
Public company benchmarks adjusted for private company risk and liquidity factors.
- Liquidity discount applied
- Growth-adjusted
- Margin-normalized
Scenario Modeling
Bull, base, and bear cases with explicit assumptions and sensitivity analysis.
- Assumption-explicit
- Sensitivity-tested
- Probability-weighted
Deep Dive